Singular Vector Ensemble Forecast of Tropical Cyclone

Thawatchai Sirikantisophon, Dusadee Sukawat


Singular vector is a method to generate several initial conditions for weather prediction models from the same observation data. In this paper, a singular vector associated with a barotropic model is applied to tropical cyclone track forecasts by creating 50 initial conditions. These initial conditions are used to create 50 track predictions with slightly different initial conditions, called ensemble forecast. The ensemble mean should have more forecast skill than a single forecast. In addition, probability forecast of storm track based on the ensemble is also possible.

Full Text: PDF


  • There are currently no refbacks.

The Thai Journal of Mathematics organized and supported by The Mathematical Association of Thailand and Thailand Research Council and the Center for Promotion of Mathematical Research of Thailand (CEPMART).

Copyright 2020 by the Mathematical Association of Thailand.

All rights reserve. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, without the prior permission of the Mathematical Association of Thailand.

|ISSN 1686-0209|