Predictability in Atmospheric Model

P. Sangapate, D. Sukawat

Abstract

Atmosphere is a dynamical system, which is a system that changes over time. An interesting feature of the dynamical system is predictability. Predictability is an ability to make an accurate forecast, which depends on degree of freedom and uncertainty in the initial condition. The shallow water model is applied for the atmosphere. It is particularly well suited and often used to test numerical techniques for weather prediction. In this research, predictability of the spectral shallow water model is investigated by using the Lyapunov exponent, maximum Lyapunov exponent, and finite size Lyapunov exponent, which are the measures of the rate of growth of error in a dynamical system.